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📊 PUBLIC TRACK RECORD · UPDATED ON MATCH DAYSTransparent track record: every pick, wins & losses
Every published pick is listed here with its real result. No filtering, no deleting, no editing: the ✅ and the ❌. It's our only trust argument — and it's verifiable.
📈 Picks tracked: 15
✅ Won: 11
❌ Lost: 2
⏳ Pending: 2
🎯 Hit rate: 85% (settled picks only)
Track record started on August 20, 2026. Picks are published before kick-off with a ⏳ status, then updated to ✅/❌ once the official result is in. No pick was published between 7 and 15 September 2026: that gap stays visible here rather than being quietly filled in.
Full history
| Date | Sport | Match / Event | Pick (probabilistic read) | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | ⚽ Football | Arsenal vs HB Koge (UEFA Women's Champions League) | Arsenal to win — at Meadow Park against the Danish side. The structural gap between the WSL and the Kvindeligaen is the real variable here, not the form of one evening. | — | ⏳ Pending |
| Sep 22 | ⚽ Football | Juventus vs Benfica (UEFA Women's Champions League) | Juventus not to lose — home at the Allianz Stadium and priced at -150 by the market. Double chance takes the draw out of the losing column. | — | ⏳ Pending |
| Sep 19 | ⚽ Football | Newcastle vs Hull City (Premier League) | Newcastle to win — Hull are back in the top flight after a decade away, via the play-off final, and travel to St James’ Park. | — | ✅ Newcastle won 2-1. Willock and Hall scored inside seven minutes; Cho pulled one back for Hull. |
| Sep 19 | ⚽ Football | Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City (Premier League) | Forest not to lose — Coventry came up as champions, not as an outsider, but Forest are at home and settled. | — | ❌ Coventry won 1-0 at the City Ground. Jay DaSilva scored on 55 minutes; Igor Jesus thought he had equalised late but VAR ruled it out for a foul. Read lost. |
| Sep 17 | ⚽ Football | Beşiktaş vs Marseille (Europa League, MD1) | Beşiktaş to win — six straight home wins and second in the Süper Lig, against a side that has lost eight of its last eleven competitive away matches and its last three overall. The market prices the badge, not the form | — | ✅ Beşiktaş won 4-1. Not close: the form gap was wider than the reputation gap. |
| Sep 17 | ⚽ Football | Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth (Europa League, MD1) | Double chance X2 — Sociedad have two wins in their last five and were beaten 3-0 at home on 13 September. Bournemouth are winless in the league but hard to beat (three draws in four). Home side priced on the league, not on the form | — | ✅ Bournemouth won 2-1 away on their European debut. The double chance never needed the draw. |
| Sep 6 | 🎾 Tennis | Paul vs Alcaraz (US Open R4) | Alcaraz to win — defending champion, but Paul is a genuine top-20 hard-courter. The price will be shorter than the real gap. Low value, logged for completeness | — | ✅ Alcaraz won 6-4, 6-3, 6-4. Straight sets — exactly the low-value outcome the price implied. |
| Sep 6 | 🎾 Tennis | Shelton vs Tsitsipas (US Open R4) | Shelton to win — seeded 8, home crowd, serve suits the surface. Tsitsipas has been uneven on hard courts; the ceiling is there, the floor is not | — | ✅ Shelton won 6-2, 6-3, 6-4. Tsitsipas never settled on the baseline; the surface argument held. |
| Sep 6 | 🎾 Tennis | Michelsen vs Etcheverry (US Open R4) | Michelsen to win — the surface is the argument. Etcheverry is at his best on clay; New York hard court removes most of what makes him dangerous | — | ✅ Michelsen won 7-6(6), 6-4, 6-4. One tie-break, then the clay specialist faded on the hard court. |
| Sep 4 | 🎾 Tennis | Wu vs Alcaraz (US Open R3) | Alcaraz to win — defending champion, seeded 2, ranking gap is very wide. Short price, low value: this is a control pick, not an edge | — | ✅ Alcaraz won 6-3, 6-4, 6-1. Straight sets, as the price implied. |
| Sep 4 | 🎾 Tennis | Medvedev vs Rinderknech (US Open R3) | Medvedev to win — 2021 champion here, elite hard-court returner. Rinderknech serves big, so a set loss is live, but over five sets the return game should decide it | — | ✅ Medvedev won 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. No set dropped — we expected it closer. |
| Sep 4 | 🎾 Tennis | Shelton vs Shapovalov (US Open R3) | Shelton to win — seeded 8, home crowd at Flushing, serve holds up on this surface. Shapovalov is streaky: high ceiling, low floor | — | ✅ Shelton won 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4. Four sets — the streaky read was right. |
| Aug 23 | 🏎️ F1 | Dutch GP — Zandvoort | Podium finish for the front-row starter — narrow track, overtaking is very hard, grid position dominates the outcome | — | ✅ Norris (P1 on the grid) won, Russell (P2 on the grid) finished third. Both front-row starters on the podium. |
| Aug 23 | ⚽ Football | Newcastle vs Liverpool (PL) | Under 3.5 goals — tight away fixture at St James' Park, early-season sides still building rhythm | — | ❌ Finished 2-2. Four goals, with a stoppage-time penalty. Read was wrong. |
| Aug 22 | ⚽ Football | Espanyol vs Real Madrid (Liga) | Real Madrid double chance (1X2: X2) — squad gap remains wide, but away trips to Cornellà are historically awkward | — | ✅ Espanyol 1-2 Real Madrid, winner in the last minute. |
How to read this record
Our analyses are probabilistic: a good pick is a bet where the real probability is better than the one implied by the odds — not a promise of profit. Even an excellent method loses regularly: that's mathematically unavoidable. What matters is the quality of the reads over time.
Record rules: real matches only · official results · no pick ever deleted or edited after publication · picks published before kick-off, results added the day after · gaps are shown, never back-filled.
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