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📊 PUBLIC TRACK RECORD · UPDATED ON MATCH DAYSTransparent track record: every pick, wins & losses
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Every pick below was published before kick-off, odds included. Losses stay on the page. 18+ · bonuses carry wagering conditions · no pick guarantees a win.
Every published pick is listed here with its real result. No filtering, no deleting, no editing: the ✅ and the ❌. It's our only trust argument — and it's verifiable.
📈 Picks tracked: 87
✅ Won: 55
❌ Lost: 26
⏳ Pending: 6
🎯 Hit rate: 68% (settled picks only)
Track record started on August 20, 2026. Picks are published before kick-off with a ⏳ status, then updated to ✅/❌ once the official result is in. No pick was published between 7 and 15 September 2026: that gap stays visible here rather than being quietly filled in.
Full history
| Date | Sport | Match / Event | Pick (probabilistic read) | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | ⚽ Football | Leeds United vs Tottenham (Premier League, round 10, 13:30 CET) | Tottenham to win away — 2.55, about 39.2% implied, with Leeds at 2.82 (35.5%) and the draw at 3.35. Under four points of probability separate the two sides: this is close to a coin flip that the market has barely tilted. The prices add up to 104.5%, a 4.3% margin — the cheapest of the three reads below. | 2.55 | ⌛ Pending |
| Nov 7 | ⚽ Football | Auxerre vs Paris FC (Ligue 1, round 10, 19:00 CET) | Paris FC to win away — 1.75, about 57.1% implied, with Auxerre at 4.35 and the draw at 3.85. An away side favoured this clearly is uncommon in Ligue 1. 57% still means it fails rather more than two times in five, and the book adds 5.8% on top. | 1.75 | ⌛ Pending |
| Nov 7 | ⚽ Football | PSG vs Troyes (Ligue 1, round 10, 21:05 CET) | PSG to win at home — 1.09, about 91.7% implied, with the draw at 10.50 and Troyes at 21.00. Read this one as a warning rather than a tip: the price returns nine cents on the euro, and the house margin here is 5.7%. You need PSG to win about 92 times in 100 simply to break even, which is exactly what the market already says. There is no value in this price, only the appearance of safety. | 1.09 | ⌛ Pending |
| Nov 6 | ⚽ Football | Everton vs Coventry City (Premier League, round 10, 21:00 CET) | Everton to win at home — 1.68, about 59.5% implied, with the draw at 3.95 and Coventry at 4.95. The three prices add up to 105.0%, so the house margin is 4.8%. Note the disagreement: Oddspedia’s own model makes draw-or-Coventry the likelier side at 54.6%. A home favourite under 60% fails about two times in five. | 1.68 | ⌛ Pending |
| Nov 6 | ⚽ Football | Toulouse vs Strasbourg (Ligue 1, round 10, 20:45 CET) | Toulouse to win at home — 2.05, about 48.8% implied, with the draw at 3.65 and Strasbourg at 3.35. The prices add up to 106.0%, a 5.7% margin. A home side priced below 50%: the single most likely outcome is still that this read loses. | 2.05 | ⌛ Pending |
| Nov 6 | ⚽ Football | Hamburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Bundesliga, round 9, 20:30 CET) | Hamburg to win at home — 2.42, about 41.3% implied, with the draw at 3.60 and Gladbach at 2.72 (36.8%). The prices add up to 105.9%, a 5.5% margin. Four and a half points of probability separate the two sides: the market sees almost no home advantage here. | 2.42 | ⌛ Pending |
| Oct 28 | ⚽ Football | Manchester City vs Brighton (EFL Cup, last 16) | Manchester City to win at home — 1.65, about 61% implied, with Brighton at 4.46 and the draw at 4.22. The three prices add up to about 107%. That 7% above 100 is the house margin, and it is charged whoever wins. | 1.65 | ❌ Lost — Manchester City 2-2 Brighton (FT), City through 4-3 on penalties. The 1X2 market settles on 90 minutes, so a draw loses the pick even though City advanced. 1.65 was about 61% implied: this outcome was always about two chances in five. |
| Oct 28 | ⚽ Football | Fulham vs Crystal Palace (EFL Cup, last 16) | Fulham to win at home — 1.84, about 54% implied, with Crystal Palace at 3.83 and the draw at 3.84. Palace and the draw are priced almost identically: the market sees no separation between an away win and no winner at all. | 1.84 | ❌ Lost — Fulham 0-1 Crystal Palace (FT). A home favourite at 1.84 is about 54% implied, barely better than a coin flip. It landed on the wrong side. |
| Oct 28 | ⚽ Football | Bournemouth vs Aston Villa (EFL Cup, last 16) | Bournemouth to win at home — 2.25, about 44% implied, with Aston Villa at 2.97 and the draw at 3.50. A home favourite under 45% implied: the single most likely outcome here is still that this pick loses. | 2.25 | ✅ Won — Bournemouth 3-0 Aston Villa (FT). We wrote before kick-off that the single most likely outcome was this pick losing, at about 44% implied. It won anyway, by three goals. |
| Oct 26 | ⚽ Football | PSG vs Lyon (Ligue 1) | PSG to win at home — 1.40, about 71% implied, with Lyon at 6.67 and the draw at 5.39. The three prices add up to about 105%. That 5% above 100 is the house margin, and it is charged whoever wins. | 1.40 | ✅ Won — PSG 2-0 Lyon (FT). 1.40 is about 71% implied, which still means roughly one failure in three. It did not fail here, and the 5% margin was charged all the same. |
| Oct 26 | ⚽ Football | Sevilla vs Osasuna (LaLiga) | Sevilla to win at home — 1.91, about 52% implied, with Osasuna at 4.14 and the draw at 3.31. A home favourite priced near evens: the market is calling this barely better than a coin flip, and the book adds about 7% on top. | 1.91 | ✅ Won — Sevilla 2-0 Osasuna (FT). A home side priced near evens won by two. The market called it a coin flip and collected its 7% either way. |
| Oct 26 | ⚽ Football | FC Copenhagen vs Odense (Superliga) | Copenhagen to win at home — 1.46, about 69% implied, with Odense at 5.99 and the draw at 4.60. Short does not mean safe: 69% implied is roughly one failure in three. | 1.46 | ❌ Lost — Copenhagen 1-1 OB (FT). 69% implied is roughly one failure in three, and this was the one. The draw at 4.60 landed. |
| Oct 25 | ⚽ Football | Hull vs Brentford (Premier League) | Brentford to win away — 1.72, about 58% implied, with Hull at 4.63 and the draw at 3.98. The shortest away price of the round. The three prices add up to about 105%, and that extra 5% is the house margin on the market. | 1.72 | ❌ Lost — Hull 1-1 Brentford (FT). 58% implied is not 58% certain: the draw at 3.98, priced near 25%, is the outcome that landed. |
| Oct 25 | ⚽ Football | Liverpool vs Brighton (Premier League) | Liverpool to win at home — 2.09, about 48% implied, with Brighton at 3.20 and the draw at 3.85. Brighton sit third on goal difference +18. A home side priced above 2.00 is the market saying: less than one chance in two. | 2.09 | ✅ Won — Liverpool 2-0 Brighton (FT). A home side priced above 2.00 won by two. The price said less than one chance in two; the scoreline says nothing about whether the price was wrong. |
| Oct 25 | ⚽ Football | Crystal Palace vs Newcastle (Premier League) | Newcastle to win away — 2.32, about 43% implied, with Crystal Palace at 2.88 and the draw at 3.62. The away side is favourite here, and 43% is the largest of the three outcomes without being a likely one. | 2.32 | ✅ Won — Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle (FT). The away favourite delivered. Home advantage is priced into the market, not guaranteed by it. |
| Oct 24 | ⚽ Football | Aston Villa vs Manchester City (Premier League) | Manchester City to win away — 1.61, about 62% implied, with Aston Villa out at 5.00 and the draw at 4.40. Villa at 5.00 at home is the market saying this is close to settled; 62% still means roughly one failure in three. | 1.61 | ❌ Lost — Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City (FT). 62% implied is still about one failure in three, and this was it: the away favourite beaten at a ground priced 5.00 against it. |
| Oct 24 | ⚽ Football | Arsenal vs Everton (Premier League) | Arsenal to win at home — 1.46, about 68% implied, with Everton out at 7.80 and the draw at 4.60. The shortest price on the card this weekend, and the one where a single goal against costs the most. | 1.46 | ✅ Won — Arsenal 2-0 Everton (FT). The shortest price on the card held, and it held without conceding. 68% implied means roughly one failure in three; this was not it. |
| Oct 24 | ⚽ Football | Chelsea vs Tottenham (Premier League) | Chelsea to win at home — 1.80, about 56% implied, with Tottenham at 4.00 and the draw at 4.10. A London derby priced barely above a coin flip: the draw and the away win are nearly level. | 1.80 | ❌ Lost — Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham (FT). A derby priced barely above a coin flip at 1.80, and the 56% side did not score at all. 56% implied is a favourite on paper and a near coin flip in practice. |
| Oct 17 | ⚽ Football | Newcastle vs Aston Villa (Premier League) | Newcastle to win at home — 2.26, about 44% implied, with Aston Villa at 2.96 and the draw at 3.70. The home favourite is still priced under a coin flip. | 2.26 | ❌ Lost — Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa (FT). The home favourite priced under a coin flip lost at home: 44% implied means it fails more often than it lands. |
| Oct 17 | ⚽ Football | Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) | Dortmund to win away — 1.55, about 65% implied, with Union Berlin out at 5.40. Two thirds is the market reading, not a promise: a price this short still fails about one time in three. | 1.55 | ❌ Lost — Union Berlin 0-0 Dortmund (FT). A goalless draw at the Alte Forsterei: the one time in three a 1.55 price warns about. |
| Oct 17 | ⚽ Football | Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao (LaLiga) | Athletic Bilbao to win away — 2.31, about 43% implied, with Valencia at 3.20 and the draw at 3.30. The draw is barely longer than the home side: the market prices this as a scrap. | 2.31 | ❌ Lost — Valencia 0-0 Athletic Club (FT). The market read it as a scrap and it was one: a goalless draw, and the away win never came. |
| Oct 16 | ⚽ Football | Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Koln (Bundesliga) | Frankfurt to win at home — 1.92, about 52% implied, with Koln at 3.46 and the draw out at 4.08. The market makes the draw the least likely of the three results, not the safe middle. | 1.92 | ✅ Won — Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FC Koln. One goal settled a pick the market put at barely 52%. |
| Oct 16 | ⚽ Football | Dep. A Coruna vs Levante (LaLiga) | Deportivo to win at home — 2.09, about 48% implied, with the draw at 3.46 and Levante at 3.50. A home favourite still under a coin flip: no outcome here is priced above 50%. | 2.09 | ❌ Lost — Dep. A Coruna 1-1 Levante. The draw, the outcome the market liked least of the three, is the one that landed. |
| Oct 16 | ⚽ Football | Le Mans vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) | Toulouse to win away — 2.32, about 43% implied, with Le Mans at 2.90 and the draw at 3.58. Favourite does not mean probable: this price fails more often than it lands. | 2.32 | ✅ Won — Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse. A price the market gave 43% came in without a wobble. |
| Oct 15 | ⚽ Football | AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva (Europa League) | AZ Alkmaar to win at home — 1.31, about 76% implied, with Beer Sheva out at 8.88. Short is not safe: a price this low still fails roughly one time in four. | 1.31 | ✅ Won — AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva. The 76% favourite held, but by a single goal. |
| Oct 15 | ⚽ Football | Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen (Europa League) | Leverkusen to win away — 1.65, about 61% implied, with Poznan at 4.65. Six times in ten is the market’s view, not a promise. | 1.65 | ✅ Won — Lech Poznan 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen. A 61% away price landed without a scare. |
| Oct 15 | ⚽ Football | Lyon vs Crystal Palace (Europa League) | Lyon to win at home — 2.24, about 45% implied, draw 3.64 and Palace 3.05. The market separates nothing here: no outcome is priced above 50%. | 2.24 | ✅ Won — Olympique Lyonnais 3-2 Crystal Palace. A pick priced at only 45% came through in a five-goal game. |
| Oct 11 | ⚽ Football | Flamengo vs Fluminense (Brazilian Serie A) | Flamengo to win the derby — 1.50, about 67% implied, with Fluminense out at 6.30. Two thirds is not certainty: a price this short still loses about one time in three. | 1.50 | ✅ Won — Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense. The 67% favourite held, but by a single goal. |
| Oct 11 | ⚽ Football | Palmeiras vs Corinthians (Brazilian Serie A) | Palmeiras to win — 1.62, about 62% implied, with the draw at 3.45 and Corinthians at 5.40. The market prices this derby closer than the home price alone suggests. | 1.62 | ✅ Won — Palmeiras 4-1 Corinthians. The derby the market priced tight was not tight. |
| Oct 11 | ⚽ Football | Atletico Mineiro vs Santos (Brazilian Serie A) | Atletico Mineiro to win at home — 2.15, about 47% implied, with the draw at 3.30 and Santos at 3.15. The market does not even make the home side a coin flip. | 2.15 | ✅ Won — Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Santos. The market would not make the home side a coin flip; they won anyway. |
| Oct 10 | ⚽ Football | Chelsea vs Bournemouth (Premier League) | Chelsea to win — 1.71, about 58% implied, with the goals line set at 3.5. The market expects an open game rather than a lock-down: a favourite priced under 60% loses this often. | 1.71 | ✅ Won — Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth at full time. A 58% favourite is not a lock, and this one happened to land wide. |
| Oct 10 | ⚽ Football | Sunderland vs Brighton (Premier League) | Brighton to win away — 2.35, about 43% implied. The market does not make the visitors favourites; this is a price on form, not a certainty. | 2.35 | ✅ Won — Sunderland 0-2 Brighton at full time. An away side priced at only 43% came through; most weeks that same price does not. |
| Oct 10 | ⚽ Football | Manchester United vs Tottenham (Premier League) | Manchester United to win — 1.69, about 59% implied, goals line at 3.5. Home edge priced in, but four in ten of these end otherwise. | 1.69 | ❌ Lost — Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham at full time. Spurs equalised after the 88th minute; a 59% favourite dropping points late is exactly the four-in-ten this price described. |
| Oct 10 | ⚽ Football | Alaves vs Atletico Madrid (Spanish La Liga) | Atletico Madrid to win away — 1.80, with the draw at 3.75. A 1.80 implies about 56%, a thin edge for a favourite on the road: a price like this fails close to half the time. | 1.80 | ✅ Won — Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid at full time. The away favourite held and the 3.75 draw never came into play. |
| Oct 10 | ⚽ Football | Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen (German Bundesliga) | Bayer Leverkusen to win away — 2.10, with the draw at 3.75. The market makes the visitors favourites and still prices them under 50%: favourite does not mean expected to win. | 2.10 | ✅ Won — Mainz 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen at full time. Seven goals and a one-goal margin: the read landed, the game was close to a coin flip. |
| Oct 10 | ⚽ Football | Real Madrid vs Villarreal (Spanish La Liga) | Real Madrid to win at home — 1.36, with the draw at 5.75. Exactly the 73% implied by the Dortmund price that just failed: short does not mean safe. | 1.36 | ✅ Won — Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal at full time. A 1.36 implies about 73%; this one landed, by the single goal that separates the two outcomes. |
| Oct 9 | ⚽ Football | Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen (German Bundesliga) | Dortmund to win at home — 1.36, with the draw at 5.75 and Werder at 8.50. A 1.36 implies about 73%, so even a price this short loses roughly one time in four. | 1.36 | ❌ Lost — Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen at full time. A 1.36 implies about 73%, and this is the one time in four it does not land: the draw settles it as a loss. |
| Oct 9 | ⚽ Football | Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais (French Ligue 1) | Lens to win at home — 2.63. Both sides are priced identically at 2.63 with the draw at 3.90: the market has no opinion on this one, and home ground is the only edge not already in the price. | 2.63 | ✅ Won — Lens 2-1 Olympique Lyonnais at full time. With both sides priced at 2.63 the market had no opinion, and home ground was the only edge left outside the price. |
| Oct 9 | ⚽ Football | Malaga vs Espanyol (Spanish La Liga) | Espanyol to win away — 2.60 against 2.90 for Malaga, draw 3.40. The market prices the visitors shorter than the hosts, which is uncommon in La Liga, and 2.60 implies only about 38%. | 2.60 | ❌ Lost — Malaga 1-1 Espanyol at full time. The visitors were the shorter price at 2.60, about 38% implied, and a draw settles the bet as a loss. |
| Oct 9 | ⚽ Football | Santos vs Flamengo (Brazil Serie A) | Flamengo to win away — 1.72 against 4.40 for Santos, draw 3.60. A 1.72 implies about 58%, so this loses roughly two times in five and that is normal. | 1.72 | ❌ Lost — Santos 2-2 Flamengo at the Vila Belmiro; Danilo on 43 and Paqueta on 45+4 put Flamengo two up, then Neymar converted two penalties on 82 and 88. A 1.72 implies about 58%, and this is one of the two in five that lose: a draw settles it as a loss. |
| Oct 9 | ⚽ Football | Palmeiras vs Bahia (Brazil Serie A) | Double chance Bahia or draw — 2.40. Palmeiras are priced 1.55 at home on reputation, but they have two wins in their last five while Bahia have four. A read against the favourite, posted as such. | 2.40 | ❌ Lost — Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia; Jose Manuel Lopez scored on 7 minutes and the home side held it. The read was posted against the favourite, and it failed on a single early goal. |
| Oct 9 | ⚽ Football | Athletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro (Brazil Serie A) | Athletico Paranaense to win at home — 2.05 against 3.55, draw 3.15. A 2.05 is a coin flip with a small home lean: the widest of tonight’s three reads. | 2.05 | ❌ Lost — Athletico Paranaense 2-2 Atletico Mineiro; Kerwin Vargas on 8 and Bernard on 27, then Kevin Viveros on 90+3 and Lyanco on 90+7. Posted as the widest of the three at 2.05, and a draw settles it as a loss. |
| Oct 6 | ⚽ Football | Colombia vs Peru (international friendly) | Colombia to win at home — 1.38 against 8.50 for Peru, draw 4.60. A 1.38 implies roughly 72%, so this is a read on control, not on value. | 1.38 | ✅ Won — Colombia 2-0 Peru in Miami; Samuel Velasquez and Daniel Arcila scored after Miguel Araujo was sent off. The 1.38 control read landed. |
| Oct 7 | ⚽ Football | United States vs Canada (international friendly) | United States to win at home — 1.87 against 3.80 for Canada, draw 3.90. A 1.87 implies about 53%: barely better than a coin flip on price, and posted as such. | 1.87 | ✅ Won — United States 1-0 Canada at Allianz Field, St Paul; Justin Ellis on 29. Posted at 1.87, barely better than a coin flip, and it held by a single goal. |
| Oct 7 | ⚽ Football | Mexico vs Chile (international friendly) | Mexico to win at home — 1.59 against 5.25 for Chile, draw 4.10. A 1.59 implies about 63%, so this one loses close to four times in ten and that is normal. | 1.59 | ❌ Lost — Mexico 0-2 Chile at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum; Maximiliano Gutierrez on 54 and Vicente Pizarro on 65 after a goalless first half. |
| Oct 4 | ⚽ Football | Netherlands vs Serbia (UEFA Nations League) | Netherlands to win — home, 1.18 against 14.50 for Serbia. A 1.18 implies roughly 85%, so this is a read on control, not on value. | 1.18 | ✅ Won — Netherlands 2-1 Serbia in Eindhoven; Koopmeiners on 31, Cvetkovic levelled on 35 and Zirkzee won it on 71. A 1.18 implies 85%, and it needed 71 minutes. |
| Oct 4 | ⚽ Football | Portugal vs Norway (UEFA Nations League) | Portugal to win — home at 1.68 against 4.40, draw 4.15. A 1.68 implies about 60%, so this one loses two times in five and that is normal. | 1.68 | ✅ Won — Portugal 2-1 Norway at the Dragao; Ajer put Norway ahead on 36, Cancelo levelled on 38 and Goncalo Ramos won it on 79. |
| Oct 4 | ⚽ Football | Greece vs Germany (UEFA Nations League) | Germany to win away — 1.82 against 4.25 for Greece. The widest of tonight’s three reads and posted as such: barely better than a coin flip on price. | 1.82 | ❌ Lost — Greece 0-0 Germany in Thessaloniki. Posted as the widest read of the three at 1.82, and it is the one that failed: a draw settles it as a loss. |
| Oct 3 | ⚽ Football | Switzerland vs Slovenia (UEFA Nations League) | Switzerland to win — home, priced 1.34 against 11.50 for Slovenia; a gap that wide at home is a read on control, not on value. | 1.34 | ✅ Won — Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia in Lucerne; Vipotnik put Slovenia ahead on 2, a Janza own goal levelled it on 10 and Ndoye won it on 38. The 1.34 control read landed, but not comfortably. |
| Oct 3 | ⚽ Football | Iceland vs Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League) | Iceland to win — home, 1.47 against 8.10 for Bulgaria. At 1.47 this still loses roughly one time in three, and that is normal. | 1.47 | ✅ Won — Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria at home; the 1.47 read landed, and it landed comfortably. |
| Oct 3 | ⚽ Football | North Macedonia vs Scotland (UEFA Nations League) | Scotland to win away — the widest of the three at 1.81, posted as such: barely better than a coin flip on price, and the likeliest of the three to lose. | 1.81 | ✅ Won — North Macedonia 0-2 Scotland; Bowie on 7 and McGinn from the spot on 69. Posted as the widest of the three reads at 1.81, and it is the one that paid. |
| Oct 1 | ⚽ Football | Germany vs Serbia (UEFA Nations League) | Germany to win — home, and the squad-depth gap is the whole read; Serbia arrive on four straight away defeats. Priced at 1.23, so this is control, not value. | 1.23 | ✅ Won — Germany 2-0 Serbia; the depth gap showed and the control pick landed. |
| Oct 1 | ⚽ Football | Malta vs Gibraltar (UEFA Nations League) | Malta to win — Gibraltar have not won any of their last 26 away matches; Malta's own four-match home losing run is what keeps the price at 1.26 rather than lower. | 1.26 | ❌ Lost — Malta 1-1 Gibraltar; Gibraltar’s away run bent into a draw, not a Malta win. |
| Oct 1 | ⚽ Football | Wales vs Norway (UEFA Nations League) | Norway to win away — the widest of the three reads at 1.48, and posted as such: a 1.48 loses roughly one time in three and that is normal, not a bad pick. | 1.48 | ❌ Lost — Wales 2-1 Norway; the widest read of the three, and it is the one that cost us. |
| Sep 29 | ⚽ Football | Spain vs Croatia (UEFA Nations League) | Spain to win — home, and the widest squad-level gap on tonight’s card; priced at 1.21, so this is a read on control, not on value. | 1.21 | ✅ Spain won 4-1 at home. Lamine Yamal scored twice, on 2 and 63, with Pubill on 31 and Nico Williams on 89; Croatia got one back before the hour. The control read, priced at 1.21, paid what a 1.21 pays. |
| Sep 29 | ⚽ Football | Czech Republic vs England (UEFA Nations League) | England to win — the deeper pool travels; Czechia at home is what keeps the price honest rather than comfortable. | 1.32 | ✅ England won 2-0 in Czechia. Gordon on 47 and Kane on 69 settled it after a goalless first half; the deeper pool travelled, as the read said it would. |
| Sep 29 | ⚽ Football | Slovenia vs North Macedonia (UEFA Nations League) | Slovenia to win — home side and the higher-ranked of the two, but the closest read of the three and posted as such. | 1.64 | ✅ Slovenia won 2-0 at home. Lovric on 55 and Matko on 82. Posted as the closest of the three reads at 1.64, and it was the one that took longest to break. |
| Sep 28 | ⚽ Football | Belgium vs France (UEFA Nations League) | France to win — the deepest squad on the card, and the read is on that depth rather than on the venue: Belgium at home is exactly why this is not a wide read. | — | ✅ France won 1-0 in Brussels. Michael Olise settled it on 88 minutes, the only goal of the night. Belgium had opened the campaign by winning 2-0 away in Italy, so the deepest squad on the card needed the full 90 against a side in form. |
| Sep 28 | ⚽ Football | Turkey vs Italy (UEFA Nations League) | Italy to win — the higher-ranked side with the better pool of starters; Turkey at home keeps this honest rather than comfortable. | — | ✅ Italy won 4-1 in Turkey. Bastoni on 9, Frattesi on 22 and Kayode on 27 made it 0-3 at the break; Baris Alper Yilmaz pulled one back on 47 before Pio Esposito restored the four-goal margin on 50. Italy had lost their own opener 0-2 at home. |
| Sep 28 | ⚽ Football | Georgia vs Ukraine (UEFA Nations League) | Ukraine to win — the clearer squad-level gap of the two, away from home; the closest of the three reads and posted as such. | — | ❌ Georgia and Ukraine drew 0-0. Ukraine never broke a side that had lost its opener 0-1 at home; posted as the closest of the three reads, and it is the one that failed. A draw settles this as a loss. |
| Sep 27 | ⚽ Football | Serbia vs Netherlands (UEFA Nations League) | Netherlands to win — the widest squad-level gap on the card, enough to travel: the read is on depth, not on home advantage. | — | ✅ Netherlands won 1-2 in Belgrade. Mexx Meerdink scored twice; the depth read travelled. |
| Sep 27 | ⚽ Football | Austria vs Kosovo (UEFA Nations League) | Austria to win — at home against a side ranked clearly below them, with the deeper pool of starters. | — | ✅ Austria won 3-1 at home. Three goals from the deeper side, exactly the shape of the read. |
| Sep 27 | ⚽ Football | Denmark vs Wales (UEFA Nations League) | Denmark to win — at home and the higher-ranked side; the closest of the three reads, and it is posted as such. | — | ✅ Denmark won 2-0 at home. The closest of the three reads, and it held without a scare. |
| Sep 26 | ⚽ Football | San Marino vs Finland (UEFA Nations League) | Finland to win — the widest talent gap on the card: San Marino are the lowest-ranked side in Europe and rarely take points at home. | — | ✅ Finland won 7-0 in Serravalle. Pohjanpalo scored three, Walta two; the talent gap showed from the 14th minute. |
| Sep 26 | ⚽ Football | Iceland vs Estonia (UEFA Nations League) | Iceland to win — at home against the weakest side of the group, with a clear gap in squad level rather than in recent form. | — | ❌ Iceland were held 1-1 at home by Estonia. Gudjohnsen scored on 45 minutes, Paskotsi levelled on 64. A draw settles this read as a loss. |
| Sep 26 | ⚽ Football | Slovakia vs Moldova (UEFA Nations League) | Slovakia to win — at home, and the ranking gap with Moldova is the largest of the group. The read is on squad level, not on one window. | — | ✅ Slovakia won 2-0 in Presov. Two goals up by half-time; the ranking gap held from start to finish. |
| Sep 25 | ⚽ Football | Morocco vs Gabon (CAF Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers) | Morocco to win — at home and ranked well above Gabon. The squad depth gap over a qualifier is larger than the single-match variance a neutral venue would add. | — | ✅ Morocco won 2-0. Mazraoui and Rahimi scored as Morocco opened their qualifying campaign at home. |
| Sep 25 | ⚽ Football | Egypt vs Angola (CAF Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers) | Egypt to win — at home in a qualifier they are expected to control. Home advantage in African qualifying is one of the few edges the market still underprices. | — | ❌ Egypt were held 0-0 at home by Angola. The home edge did not convert: a goalless draw settles this read as a loss. |
| Sep 25 | ⚽ Football | Nigeria vs Madagascar (CAF Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers) | Nigeria to win — at home with a far deeper attacking pool. The read is on the talent gap, not on form over one window. | — | ✅ Nigeria won 2-1 in Uyo. Kari put Madagascar ahead, then Ilenikhena levelled in first-half stoppage time and Usor won it on 65 minutes. |
| Sep 24 | ⚽ Football | Portugal vs Wales (UEFA Nations League) | Portugal to win — home at Estadio Jose Alvalade and priced around -525. The market gap here is wider than any single-match variance. | — | ✅ Portugal won 1-0. Joao Felix scored in the 22nd minute in Lisbon and Portugal held the lead to the final whistle. |
| Sep 24 | ⚽ Football | Austria vs Israel (UEFA Nations League) | Austria not to lose — home in Linz and priced at -250 on the straight win. Double chance removes the draw from the losing column. | — | ✅ Austria won 3-1 in Linz. Schmid converted a first-half penalty, Mwene and Kalajdzic added late goals after Abu Farchi had equalised. |
| Sep 24 | ⚽ Football | Norway vs Denmark (UEFA Nations League) | Norway not to lose — at Ullevaal and favoured at -140. A tight derby where the draw is a live outcome, so double chance is the honest read. | — | ✅ Norway won 3-2 in Oslo. Bobb opened the scoring and Haaland scored twice, enough to hold off Hojlund and Damsgaard. |
| Sep 22 | ⚽ Football | Arsenal vs HB Koge (UEFA Women's Champions League) | Arsenal to win — at Meadow Park against the Danish side. The structural gap between the WSL and the Kvindeligaen is the real variable here, not the form of one evening. | — | ✅ Arsenal won 1-0. Mariona Caldentey converted a stoppage-time penalty at Meadow Park after Cerci was brought down. |
| Sep 22 | ⚽ Football | Juventus vs Benfica (UEFA Women's Champions League) | Juventus not to lose — home at the Allianz Stadium and priced at -150 by the market. Double chance takes the draw out of the losing column. | — | ❌ Benfica won 2-1 in Turin. A Bratberg Lund brace settled it; Redondo pulled one back late. |
| Sep 19 | ⚽ Football | Newcastle vs Hull City (Premier League) | Newcastle to win — Hull are back in the top flight after a decade away, via the play-off final, and travel to St James’ Park. | — | ✅ Newcastle won 2-1. Willock and Hall scored inside seven minutes; Cho pulled one back for Hull. |
| Sep 19 | ⚽ Football | Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City (Premier League) | Forest not to lose — Coventry came up as champions, not as an outsider, but Forest are at home and settled. | — | ❌ Coventry won 1-0 at the City Ground. Jay DaSilva scored on 55 minutes; Igor Jesus thought he had equalised late but VAR ruled it out for a foul. Read lost. |
| Sep 17 | ⚽ Football | Beşiktaş vs Marseille (Europa League, MD1) | Beşiktaş to win — six straight home wins and second in the Süper Lig, against a side that has lost eight of its last eleven competitive away matches and its last three overall. The market prices the badge, not the form | — | ✅ Beşiktaş won 4-1. Not close: the form gap was wider than the reputation gap. |
| Sep 17 | ⚽ Football | Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth (Europa League, MD1) | Double chance X2 — Sociedad have two wins in their last five and were beaten 3-0 at home on 13 September. Bournemouth are winless in the league but hard to beat (three draws in four). Home side priced on the league, not on the form | — | ✅ Bournemouth won 2-1 away on their European debut. The double chance never needed the draw. |
| Sep 6 | 🎾 Tennis | Paul vs Alcaraz (US Open R4) | Alcaraz to win — defending champion, but Paul is a genuine top-20 hard-courter. The price will be shorter than the real gap. Low value, logged for completeness | — | ✅ Alcaraz won 6-4, 6-3, 6-4. Straight sets — exactly the low-value outcome the price implied. |
| Sep 6 | 🎾 Tennis | Shelton vs Tsitsipas (US Open R4) | Shelton to win — seeded 8, home crowd, serve suits the surface. Tsitsipas has been uneven on hard courts; the ceiling is there, the floor is not | — | ✅ Shelton won 6-2, 6-3, 6-4. Tsitsipas never settled on the baseline; the surface argument held. |
| Sep 6 | 🎾 Tennis | Michelsen vs Etcheverry (US Open R4) | Michelsen to win — the surface is the argument. Etcheverry is at his best on clay; New York hard court removes most of what makes him dangerous | — | ✅ Michelsen won 7-6(6), 6-4, 6-4. One tie-break, then the clay specialist faded on the hard court. |
| Sep 4 | 🎾 Tennis | Wu vs Alcaraz (US Open R3) | Alcaraz to win — defending champion, seeded 2, ranking gap is very wide. Short price, low value: this is a control pick, not an edge | — | ✅ Alcaraz won 6-3, 6-4, 6-1. Straight sets, as the price implied. |
| Sep 4 | 🎾 Tennis | Medvedev vs Rinderknech (US Open R3) | Medvedev to win — 2021 champion here, elite hard-court returner. Rinderknech serves big, so a set loss is live, but over five sets the return game should decide it | — | ✅ Medvedev won 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. No set dropped — we expected it closer. |
| Sep 4 | 🎾 Tennis | Shelton vs Shapovalov (US Open R3) | Shelton to win — seeded 8, home crowd at Flushing, serve holds up on this surface. Shapovalov is streaky: high ceiling, low floor | — | ✅ Shelton won 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4. Four sets — the streaky read was right. |
| Aug 23 | 🏎️ F1 | Dutch GP — Zandvoort | Podium finish for the front-row starter — narrow track, overtaking is very hard, grid position dominates the outcome | — | ✅ Norris (P1 on the grid) won, Russell (P2 on the grid) finished third. Both front-row starters on the podium. |
| Aug 23 | ⚽ Football | Newcastle vs Liverpool (PL) | Under 3.5 goals — tight away fixture at St James' Park, early-season sides still building rhythm | — | ❌ Finished 2-2. Four goals, with a stoppage-time penalty. Read was wrong. |
| Aug 22 | ⚽ Football | Espanyol vs Real Madrid (Liga) | Real Madrid double chance (1X2: X2) — squad gap remains wide, but away trips to Cornellà are historically awkward | — | ✅ Espanyol 1-2 Real Madrid, winner in the last minute. |
How to read this record
Our analyses are probabilistic: a good pick is a bet where the real probability is better than the one implied by the odds — not a promise of profit. Even an excellent method loses regularly: that's mathematically unavoidable. What matters is the quality of the reads over time.
Record rules: real matches only · official results · no pick ever deleted or edited after publication · picks published before kick-off, results added the day after · gaps are shown, never back-filled.
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